The Tigray War and The Road Ahead | Rishi Shrivastava
The land of the Abyssinian empire, which served as the predecessor of the current modern state of Ethiopia, has garnered global attention due to the political turmoil in Tigray that has caused the federal state to fire airstrikes within the country. After nearly 17 months of conflict, an agreement has been reached between the government and rebel forces.
Ethiopia is one of the two African countries never colonized by an imperial power [1]; however, for a few years in the 20th century, the Italian regime exerted control over certain aspects of Ethiopia’s foreign relations. After attaining the status of an official state during World War II, Ethiopia experienced a coup attempt against the monarchy in 1960, fueled by the influence of the Cold War; however, it ultimately failed to depose the king. Nevertheless, increased agitation and student movements against the monarch Haile Selassie alleged that he was an agent of the West. Furthermore, in the 1974 revolution, he was superseded by the military junta. The new Communist ideological military regime ‘Derg’ employed extreme force to suppress its opponents. The campaign was similar to the Soviet one and became known as the ‘Red Terror of Ethiopia’ [2].
Ethiopia is a diverse country consisting of more than 80 regional ethnicities; among them, the Amhara and Oromo are the dominant groups. Regional militias and separatist movements emerged over the years to challenge the Derg and demand autonomy for the areas. The Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF), a prominent organization, advanced insurgency in the northern region and demanded an independent country for the Eritrean people. The struggle ended in 1991 when Eritrea declared de facto independence from Ethiopia due to the dynamic shift in the geopolitical milieu. Subsequently, Ethiopia transitioned to/established a democratic government in 1994 with the adoption of a constitution and the removal of the military regime [3].
Nevertheless, due to the internal and external political dynamics, it engaged in the war with the newly independent Eritrean state, which ended in 2018 with President Abiy Ahmed’s efforts for a peace agreement with Eritrea. President Abiy Ahmed’s actions were seen as a turning point in the history of Ethiopia, as he promised development and peace for all ethnicities and introduced several reforms to create a prosperous Ethiopia.
However, on the contrary, his attempts to unite the Ethiopian people have not transpired as expected. Abiy Ahmed was accused by other regional states of centralizing power and flouting federalism principles; he allegedly formed a new Prosperity party to consolidate and strengthen his political influence. He had the agenda of making it pan-Ethiopian and had invited the opposition leaders from Tigray to collaborate. Nevertheless, their disagreement persists, remaining an unresolved focal point of conflict.
The current president hails from the Oromo ethnicity, which presently wields influence in the region. In past administrations, the Tigrayan front significantly shaped Ethiopian politics, maintaining control for three decades despite constituting only 6% of the population [4]. However, following the recent governmental shift, they have relinquished their hold on power. The crisis originated amid political instability and manifested as armed conflict in the Afar and Amhara regions. The president has levied allegations against the Tigrayan regional government, citing corruption and a lack of collaboration with the federal state.
The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) sought to conduct elections in 2020, but due to the pandemic, the federal government was not in favor of holding them. This further exacerbated the ongoing tensions between the federal government and TPLF. The rising instability led to attacks on the military bases of the federal government in Tigray and to push back the rebels, prompting Abiy Ahmed to order the army to intervene. The conflict has significant global and local implications as the war has intensified, resulting in the loss of thousands of civilian lives. The Abiy Ahmed government is trying to suppress the rebels brutally, and as a result, more than 2 million people have been internally displaced, and over 50,000 have crossed borders to the neighboring country Sudan [5].
The Horn of Africa region is one of the world’s most volatile regions. The majority of the people are suffering from food and health catastrophe. The refugee crisis is becoming a considerable global burden, with thousands of people rendered stateless. The UN has expressed concerns regarding the Tigray Crisis [6]. The situation persists, posing a global challenge where millions of people are enduring hardship without adequate assistance. The Ethiopian government is seeking military assistance from neighboring Eritrea to quell insurgent forces. This collaboration is motivated by historical territorial disputes in the Tigray region, coupled with Eritrea’s broader strategic objective of exerting influence in regional geopolitics.
The internal rift in the Ethiopian state is creating obstacles to its development process. The creation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has given rise to varied differences within and outside the country [7]. Myriad ethnic groups of the region oppose the dam’s construction, fearing its impact on their livelihoods. Tigray rebels are coming together with the communities that oppose the construction of the dam in resistance to the federal government, which has been alleged to be supported by Egypt [8](Tessema, 2021). Moreover, the dam’s construction in Ethiopia has led to disputes in its external relations, particularly with Sudan and Egypt, as they accuse Ethiopia of exerting control over most of the Nile River’s water by building the dam.
The geopolitical significance of the region is underscored by the presence of various military bases in neighboring Djibouti, heightening global interest. The protracted crisis in the area is poised to attract intervention from major global powers, such as China and the USA, both vying for supremacy and exerting influence on regional politics to assert their dominance [9]. The Western bloc has warned the Ethiopian government of the human rights abuses in the Tigray region and has threatened to put sanctions. Moreover, on the other side, China has invested heavily in Ethiopia and wants to counter the USA’s influence in the region, with support from Ankara and Tehran, providing drone assistance to the Ethiopian government against the rebels [10].
The geopolitical landscape extends beyond considerations of influence; instead, global powers are increasingly drawn to Ethiopia’s untapped resources. The country’s unexplored reservoirs of gas, gold, and power have become pivotal factors shaping its international standing. The ongoing conflict has led to a dire situation in Ethiopia, where international organizations face challenges in providing relief measures to the affected population. The Ethiopian state has hindered aid efforts, fearing that assistance might expose the true on-ground conditions and the government’s alleged atrocities against its citizens.
Presently, the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict has precipitated a discernible transformation in global discourse, creating a state of disarray that is diverting attention from other pressing matters that demand global consideration. Nonetheless, there is an urgent need for the international community to interfere in peacebuilding and stabilize Ethiopia’s situation. As the conflict intensifies, it could draw other neighboring countries into its haze, engendering destabilization across East Africa and paving the way for global consequences that politically turbulent nations would have to endure.
Conclusion
The Ethiopian state is required to incorporate all the ethnic groups in the power politics as their development would guide the development of Ethiopia. In the pursuit of peace, it is imperative for the Ethiopian state to consistently honor the truce, fully withdraw its military forces from the Tigray region, and actively support the establishment of humanitarian corridors. However, both conflicting parties must collectively take measures to avert mass looting, incidents of sexual violence, and ethnic cleansing, while concurrently ensuring accountability for those responsible for war crimes [11].
The Horn of Africa and adjacent areas are prone to internal ethnic conflicts and have been part of a repressive past. The minute changes in politics could create massive disasters. To overcome the contemporary rifts within the country, all stakeholders must work together, as peace cannot be achieved in Ethiopia without cooperation and reconciliation among all parties, ensuring a consensus that accommodates all ethnicities.
Reference
[1] Verhoeven, Harry. “Africa’s Next Hegemon,” Foreign Affairs. April 12, 2015, Africa’s Next Hegemon | Foreign Affairs
[2] Hailu, G. “The Politics of Nation-Building, Ethnicity, and Democratization in Ethiopia.” Inquiries Journal, 2022, http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/articles/1934/the-politics-of-nation-building-ethnicity-and-democratization-in-ethiopia
[3] “THE HORN OF AFRICA WAR:” Human Rights Watch, n.d., https://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/ethioerit0103/ethioerit0103-02.htm.
[4] Walsh, Declan and Dahir, Latif Abdi. “Why Is Ethiopia at War With Itself?”. The New York Times, 16 Mar. 2022, Why Is Ethiopia at War in the Tigray Region? – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
[5] “Over 2 million people displaced by conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – local official”. Reuters, 6 Jan. 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/over-2-million-people-displaced-by-conflict-ethiopias-tigray-region-local-2021-01-06/.
[6] Ghosh, Bobby. “The world’s attention is on Ukraine and Russia, but the deadliest war is in Ethiopia.” The Print, 22 Mar. 2022, The world’s attention is on Ukraine and Russia, but the deadliest war is in Ethiopia (theprint. in).
[7] “Eritrea is involved in Tigray to boost its stature. Why the strategy could backfire”. The Conversation, 30 Jan. 2022, Eritrea is involved in Tigray to boost its stature. Why the strategy could backfire (theconversation.com).
[8] Tessema, Seleshi. “Egypt working to destabilize Ethiopia, East Africa.” Anadolu Agency, 21 Jan. 2021, ‘Egypt working to destabilize Ethiopia, East Africa’ (aa.com.tr).
[9] “US threatens new sanctions over conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray.” Al Jazeera, 17 Sep. 2021, US threatens new sanctions over conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray | News | Al Jazeera.
[10] Walsh, Declan. “Foreign Drones Tip the Balance in Ethiopia’s Civil War.” The New York Times, 20 Dec. 2021, Foreign Drones Tip the Balance in Ethiopia’s Civil War – The New York Times (nytimes.com).
[11] Gavin, Michelle. “The Conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray Region: What to Know.” CFR, 10 Feb. 2021, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/conflict-ethiopias-tigray-region-what-know.